Sources and methods

Every base layer in Kubinu Agents, where it comes from, its licence and its date, then how travel time is worked out and what it cannot tell you.

Layers

ng-pilot-1

Layer	Source	Licence	Date of the data	Rows	Loaded
Cells	WorldPop modelled gridded population estimates for Nigeria 2025, version 3.0Nnanatu C.C., Gadiaga A., Abbott T.J., Chamberlain H., Lazar A.N., Tatem A.J. (2025). Modelled gridded population estimates for Nigeria 2025 version 3.0. WorldPop, University of Southampton. https://dx.doi.org/10.5258/SOTON/WP00782	CC BY 4.0	2025	433,238	13 Oct 2026
Travel graph	OpenStreetMap, Geofabrik Nigeria extractOpenStreetMap contributors. Nigeria extract by Geofabrik GmbH.	ODbL 1.0	2026-10-11	529,736	13 Oct 2026
LGAs	OCHA COD-AB Nigeria administrative boundariesOCHA Nigeria, Common Operational Dataset: Subnational Administrative Boundaries (states and LGAs), source OSGoF and eHealth Africa. Humanitarian Data Exchange.	CC BY-IGO	2019	84	13 Oct 2026
Markets	GRID3 NGA - MarketsGRID3 Nigeria. GRID3 NGA - Markets: Nigeria country-wide market locations and names. Released September 2020.	GRID3 terms of use (attribution)	2020-09	1,060	13 Oct 2026
Places	OpenStreetMap, Geofabrik Nigeria extractOpenStreetMap contributors. Nigeria extract by Geofabrik GmbH.	ODbL 1.0	2026-10-11	3,048	13 Oct 2026
Public points	OpenStreetMap, Geofabrik Nigeria extractOpenStreetMap contributors. Nigeria extract by Geofabrik GmbH.	ODbL 1.0	2026-10-11	2,704	13 Oct 2026
Regions	OCHA COD-AB Nigeria administrative boundariesOCHA Nigeria, Common Operational Dataset: Subnational Administrative Boundaries (states and LGAs), source OSGoF and eHealth Africa. Humanitarian Data Exchange.	CC BY-IGO	2019	3	13 Oct 2026
Roads	OpenStreetMap, Geofabrik Nigeria extractOpenStreetMap contributors. Nigeria extract by Geofabrik GmbH.	ODbL 1.0	2026-10-11	294,614	13 Oct 2026
Water	OpenStreetMap, Geofabrik Nigeria extractOpenStreetMap contributors. Nigeria extract by Geofabrik GmbH.	ODbL 1.0	2026-10-11	595	13 Oct 2026

How travel time is worked out

The ground is cut into hexagonal cells of about 0.1 km², with centres about 350 m apart. Each cell holds the people WorldPop places in it.

On foot, a person moves from a cell to any neighbouring land cell at 4.5 km/h. By road, a trip is counted door to door: the walk from the middle of the cell to the nearest mapped road, the drive along the roads as OpenStreetMap draws them at the speed for each class of road, and the walk from the road to the middle of the cell at the other end. Roads are joined only where the map joins them. A cell that is mostly water and has nobody living in it is closed unless a road crosses it.

Travel time to your nearest point is the shortest path over that network from each cell. Straight-line distance is worked out separately and does not use roads.

Speeds assumed for each class of road

Class	km/h
Motorway	80
Trunk	60
Primary	50
Secondary	40
Tertiary	30
Unclassified	25
Residential	20
Service	15
Track	15
Footway	4.5
Path	4.5
Walk	4.5

One open-road speed per class, the same on every road of that class. There is no traffic in the model.

What this cannot tell you

Travel times use one assumed open-road speed per road class (km/h: motorway 80, trunk 60, primary 50, secondary 40, tertiary 30, unclassified 25, residential 20, service 15, track 15, path 4.5, footway 4.5; walking 4.5). There is no traffic in the model, so journeys at busy hours take longer than shown.
A drive time is counted door to door: the walk from the middle of a 0.1 km2 cell to the nearest mapped road, the drive along the roads as OpenStreetMap draws them, and the walk from the road to the middle of the cell at the other end. One-way streets and turn bans are not modelled, a trip may join a road at the point nearest the cell even where there is no slip road, and a road that is missing from the map, or drawn without a join to the next road, is missing from the time.
Checked on 1,529 trips of 1 to 30 km against the same roads and speeds routed point to point, half of the drive times are within 0.5 % and nine in ten within 8.9 %, leaning 0.4 % too short. On 897 trips of 1 to 5 km, half are within 1.3 % and nine in ten within 21.7 %. This check proves the arithmetic, not the speeds or the map: it cannot say whether 20 km/h on a residential street is right.
In Lagos State the map shows no road or dry path to 1,090 people on an island in Lekki Lagoon (16 cells; Epe LGA: Aba-Oriyanrin, Ide, Imoba, Ladugbo), or to 10 people the population raster places on Badagry Creek (1 cell; Badagry LGA). No travel time is given for them, because ferries and boats are not modelled.
On foot, water cells are closed even where a bridge crosses them, and water narrower than a cell (about 350 m) does not block walking. A cell that is mostly water but has people in it counts as land, so a few waterside settlements are joined on foot to the far bank.
Population is the WorldPop modelled estimate for 2025, scaled to the UN projection for July 2025. It is not a census count and not an official government statistic. Adults are that total minus ages 0 to 14.
State and LGA outlines are the OCHA COD-AB file of 2019. They are generalised: a cell near a border, a shore or the lagoon can fall in the neighbouring LGA.
Urban centre, urban cluster and rural are a simplified degree-of-urbanisation rule on 0.1 km2 cells, not the UN method.
Banks, ATMs, fuel stations, pharmacies, shops and marketplaces come from OpenStreetMap, which is far from complete in Nigeria. Their counts are a floor, never a census of outlets.

Checks run on the loaded data

Check	Result	Figures
Population	Passed	Tolerance pct 0.5
Population: By state: Kano	Passed	Diff pct -0.003Cells pop 18,785,572Raster pop 18,786,097Cells adults 10,233,694Raster adults 10,233,941Diff adults pct -0.002
Population: By state: Lagos	Passed	Diff pct -0.03Cells pop 12,657,788Raster pop 12,661,604Cells adults 8,272,094Raster adults 8,274,722Diff adults pct -0.032
Population: By state: Ogun	Passed	Diff pct 0.037Cells pop 12,839,056Raster pop 12,834,297Cells adults 7,843,358Raster adults 7,840,182Diff adults pct 0.041
Bridges	Passed	–
Bridges: Lekki - Ikoyi Bridge	Passed	–
Bridges: Third Mainland Bridge	Passed	–
Walking	Passed	Walk kmh 4.5Distance km 3.5Straight line min 46.7
Walking: By state: NG020	Passed	Origin 89580ac5dafffffMax minutes 55.4Min minutes 46.4Cell spacing m 345Median minutes 51.5Cells 3 4 to 3 6 km away 45
Walking: By state: NG025	Passed	Origin 895882655bbffffMax minutes 54.9Min minutes 46.7Cell spacing m 316Median minutes 52Cells 3 4 to 3 6 km away 52
Walking: By state: NG028	Passed	Origin 895883c88afffffMax minutes 55.3Min minutes 47Cell spacing m 317Median minutes 52.4Cells 3 4 to 3 6 km away 52
Reachability	Passed	People in them 10Max no road link pct 0.05Populated cells with no edge 1Passed no cell without an edge noPassed everyone on the main network no
Reachability: No road link: By state: NG020	Passed	Pop 0Cells 0Pct of state pop 0
Reachability: No road link: By state: NG025	Passed	Pop 1,099Cells 17Pct of state pop 0.009
Reachability: No road link: By state: NG028	Passed	Pop 0Cells 0Pct of state pop 0
Graph symmetry	Passed	Max walk asymmetry min 0
Water	Passed	–
Water: Bodies: Lagos Lagoon	Passed	Cells inside 4,188Osm polygons 1Mostly water pct 97.4Flagged water pct 95

Licences and exports

Maps, screens and PDF reports may show any of these layers together, with the attribution below.

Travel time is derived from OpenStreetMap roads, so it carries the Open Database Licence. A file you export never mixes your own columns with travel-time columns: the two are offered as separate files. Straight-line distance, population and counts are not derived from OpenStreetMap and may sit beside your own columns.

Attribution

Nnanatu C.C., Gadiaga A., Abbott T.J., Chamberlain H., Lazar A.N., Tatem A.J. (2025). Modelled gridded population estimates for Nigeria 2025 version 3.0. WorldPop, University of Southampton. https://dx.doi.org/10.5258/SOTON/WP00782 CC BY 4.0.
OpenStreetMap contributors. Nigeria extract by Geofabrik GmbH. ODbL 1.0.
OCHA Nigeria, Common Operational Dataset: Subnational Administrative Boundaries (states and LGAs), source OSGoF and eHealth Africa. Humanitarian Data Exchange. CC BY-IGO.
GRID3 Nigeria. GRID3 NGA - Markets: Nigeria country-wide market locations and names. Released September 2020. GRID3 terms of use (attribution).